From a July 28 USA Today article:In the heart of San Francisco, Noe Valley is home to dot-com millionaires and working professionals. The streets are lined with Edwardian and grand Victorian row houses built in the late 19th century, and the neighborhood, flanked by hills, features an eclectic array of coffee shops, sushi restaurants and lively bookshops.Full story here.The real estate market in San Francisco is struggling to regain its footing, with home prices down 0.7% from the third quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of this year. But in Noe Valley, most homes are going just above listing price. In May, homes sold for an average of 0.02% more than the last listing price, according to Zillow.com. Based on median list price, that translates into $218 more.
"It's crazy," says Brendon DeSimone, a Realtor with Paragon Real Estate in San Francisco, who represents buyers and sellers in Noe Valley. "I had one house with five offers, and it went from $1.4 million to $1.7 million. The valley has just popped. It's not uncommon for one open house to have 200 people come through."
Nationally, the average property takes eight to nine weeks to sell, down from 10 to 11 weeks a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. In Noe Valley in May, there were 25 listings that sold after averaging five weeks on the market.
[Homes will sell if priced right – USA Today]
26 comments:
Nice how they make a trend out of one data point and an overheated realtor anecdote. Here's some other data points (also from Zillow).
Zillow Home Value Index in Noe Valley: DOWN 2.2% year over year (compared to a citywide average of UP 4.1% year over year)
Percentage of homes in Noe Valley with decreasing values: 38% (compared to a citywide average of 29%)
Hey, I own a home here too. I'm not trying to rag on the neighborhood. But the picture in Noe Valley is mixed at best. The recovery here has been weaker than in Bernal, Mission, or Glen Park (although better than Diamond Heights).
Check the stats at Zillow: http://tinyurl.com/2383jc3
A lot depends on pricing. There are 2 units next door to us that have been on the market a very long time (one of them at least a year - it's currently being marketed by the relo company representing the former owners company), and have both seen price reductions - no movement.
"a lot depends on pricing"...
brilliant comment. what else can you enlighten us with?
Let's see... what else...
"You must be a hit at parties"
well...a lot smarter than you, for starters.
First off, know that I am not an NV resident. However, my daughter does live in NV and I spend about 25 to 30 days each year in NV.
In going through the comments posted on this and preceding articles there seems to be surprisingly high amount of vitriol. Lots of folks calling others names and disparaging others viewpoints. Some posts being removed for, what I'm guessing is, inappropriate content. Is this the true character of the NV community? This sure seems to be contradictory to the limited experience I've had on a day-to-day level. I've found folks friendly and cooperative. Is that just a thin veneer for the disgust and intolerance I see here? Or does the anonymity of this format bring out the worst in people?
Well...let's be clear. You're just as "anonymous" as I am here right now. People in Noe Valley are very passionate about their view points and their issues. People here care deeply about life here in noe and express it often in very strong terms. so what?
I don't think posting as anonymous makes anyone more "vitriolic" than someone with a "real" name. A so called real name, just like yours is made up..and when we click on it you remain just as anon as the next guy..but I'm curious. why go to the trouble of calling yourself The Dad..when you tell us nothing about you...? hmm..
I agree with the Dad. Comments like those from anonymous@9:40 are just nasty and add no value. Their purpose (as anonymous made clear in his/her follow up), is to make the poster feel smart -- but really they just make the person look childish and immature. If anonymous actually disagreed with Murphastahoe or had something to add to the conversation that would be great. But they resorted to a snarky comment that just degrades the quality of the conversation. I don't know if the person is insecure or just bored, but really, we would all be better if they went elsewhere with their insults.
I'mnot,
Yes, I am, like you, an anonymous entity in this format. The only reason my handle came out as The Dad is because that handle was imported from Google and my daughter's blog.
You mention that people in NV are very passionate concerning their viewpoints and issues. That would certainly seem to be the case based on what I've seen but I would also ask.........Does being passionate about any cause or issue justify denigrating others of opposing views? Does being passionate automatically negate constructive conversation? Does being passionate make working together toward a better community impossible?
As regards me........... what would you want to know about me? I've explained my handle. Is there anything else you'd like to know?
And Anon (10:09),
Yes, I do agree that constructive conversation is the best way to go toward actually resolving issues. But do remember that strength comes from diversity. It's good to have issues and discuss those issues with others of differing opinions. That kind of discourse allows us take a look at those dear issues from other perspectives. But you are right, the snarky stuff just gets in the way.
I'm thinking that Anon (12:40) is a pretty sharp observer of the true general condition of things. His/her considered opinion is one that should carry some weight. I'm also thinking that I'd like to hear more thoughtful and insightful commentary from this person.
@ "thedad"..ok, we're so glad you explained to us the "only" reason your handle came out that way..
whatever...I always love how people can justify anything to fit the purpose.
The vitriol comes from the few a**holes who live in Noe Valley. Every valley has a few...it just seems that all of ours comment on this blog.
I think Noe V real estate is holding up very well, compared to other neighborhoods..and I'm very bullish on the future.
We're seeing prices remain pretty solid, especially for single family homes of 3br/2.5 bath types..most are in the 1.5-1.8m range..not too bad..makes me happy.:)
Hiya Rocky'sdad,
Bearing in mind that I am not an NV resident, what you have said certainly seems to ring true. My daughter and her husband bought a SFH last year and have already seen their purchase appreciate (at least according to Zillow).
Current trends may be mixed as has already been observed. But, like you, I too would be bullish on the long term values picture for NV.
Here is the Zillow Home Value Index for 3 Bedrooms in various corners of the city over the last 5 years: Noe Valley, Pacific Heights, Inner Sunset, Haight Ashbury, Mission.
http://tinyurl.com/28edz9a
Noe Valley is still expensive, yes, but prices have declined here more than in those other neighborhoods. The downward curve in Noe Valley was expecially steep from 2008 to 2009, and there has been no upward movement from 2009 to 1010 as there has been in other neighborhoods.
You are right, there are some neighborhoods that have seen larger price declines than Noe Valley. The Marina and SOMA are in trouble.
But Noe Valley is holding up about average or slightly worse than average when compared to the city as a whole, which makes the USA today article that singles out the neighborhood kind of silly.
If you have facts (not anecdotes) that show otherwise, Rocky's Dad, I'd love to see them.
Long-term is anyone's guess. I'm fairly bullish as well -- the city's center-of-gravity is gradually moving south and west from the traditional core in the northeast neighborhoods -- but it depends on what happens with the South Bay tech industry more than anything else.
Nope, not gonna indulge you in any "facts, not anecdotes.."...my opinion, take it or leave it.
Zillow also factors in opinion and bias as much as they throw in facts as well. Take it all with caution.
I like Noe. I'm bullish on Noe and home prices.
I have a strong hunch as to who you are..You have always been obsessed here on this blog with demanding people give you "facts" and "data"...And I'm not interested in feeding your obsession. One can agree or disagree with me, or not.
Hey Rocky's Dad, I apologize for the snippy tone of my post (at 2:42). One of my pet peeves is real estate news that pretends to be based on facts but really is based on realtor hype (like the quote from DeSimone in the article in the article). Sorry that you got caught in the crossfire. I was really just irritated by the USA Today article, because the data shows that the valley has not "popped." It's doing about the same as the rest of San Francisco. You're entitled to your opinion, of course. Didn't mean to imply otherwise. (p.s. I hardly ever comment on this blog. You've got me confused with somebody else.)
No problem. thanks for saying that...I agree that realtor hype is one my huge pet peeves...they need to work on honesty in marketing, and the whole overdone photoshop crap we see...
and, just stop with the "top producer" bs...who cares, really?
Comps in this neighborhood are very tricky. Two 3 bedroom 2 baths on the same block could look the same cosmetically and generally function "OK" but one could be worth hundreds of thousands more because the inferior property has some fatal flaw like a dated foundation. There are a lot of houses that have been cared for for decades by very handy, hard working folk who had to cut a few corners and the result is a house way out of code.
These are wonderful houses that need a lot of work to be brought to code, and often the math comes out "teardown". A side effect as we know - for better or for worse is once you tear it down and go through permitting - might as well add a story and build out the back.
The comp that tells the story is successive sales on the same house. 2324-2326 Castro was purchased in 2003 for 630k, sold in 2005 for 835k (after some work). Last year it sold for 850k - in the exact same condition as 2005. That's pretty good price stability. But I don't think the higher end is as stable - simply because the pool of buyers is smaller.
I couldn't disagree more with murph. You have it completely wrong.
"hard working folks", as you call them who cut a few corners really just made the decision to cheat the system, avoid permits and adhering to the building code. The code is not just for well to do people. It's designed for all people, and designed for the safety of occupants, not just to make building and renovating more expensive. Those just ordinary hard working people decided they could make their own rules,resulting in a lot of non-compliant houses that are pieces of junk. I live next to some of these here in Noe.
As for the strange logic of the teardown issue: That's the same idiotic thinking that allowed people to take borrow from their home's equity: "Well, since we already have this house worth so much, lets just buy a boat too, and the rv..and the third car.." might as well....
Greed, apathy, and selfishness got these people all in trouble in the examples above.
Going through permitting and building to code is time consuming and much more expensive. And if I needed to create or improve shelter for my family and there is only one way to afford it, then it's going to happen that way.
RC -can you really not imagine this kind of motivation - or is everybody evil and out to game the system in your mind?
And Murph was implying, as you were, unpermited work is typically scabbed-on, sub-standard work, and that it could result in devaluing a house to the point where it makes economic sense to tear it down and start over.
@tom: Oh, I can imagine that kind of motivation for sure. As an architect, I see it all the time in projects I take on to make livable and safe for families.
It's disturbing to know that some people's values and beliefs have more to do with cheating the system and "cutting corners" than doing something right. Even more concerning to me is remodeling your house for your family, and ignoring the building codes dealing with issues of safety and structural integrity. I refuse to believe that most people would choose this route.
If one is attempting to make a choice between cutting costs OR doing it right, then I would say they are not living in the real world. In fact, if one does not "do it right" in the first place, one will pay dearly and much more in the long run to correct those mistakes.
Is it possible to do something right without having permits or being a contractor?
You know, just learning how to do it right and then doing it that way...
@rocky's dad - that was not the reply I expected! I agree with you 100% but...
I was trying to be delicate towards the people who came before us (many of whose descendants still live here). I don't think it has anything to do with greed - eventually they have to sell those houses and if they have remodeled their way into a teardown, they will lose money, n'est pas?
They hacked this stuff together because they wanted to "improve" their house but didn't have the money. You know I am a crazy San Francisco Liberal and as such I am not allowed to judge ;) You know - Noe Valley is one of the less wealthy neighborhoods in San Francisco.
Spoken as someone who tore up cat-pee stained carpet to find that there was no subfloor. My house had been expanded on the second level over the former first floor balcony, and then they just put carpet on top of the former shingles. Didn't even bother to tack it down.
I read the USA Today piece and believe if you have five people write such an article, you might get five totally different opinions. Zillow data is interesting to read but as some posts indicate above, can be quite subjective.
Where the rubber hits the road is the appraisal process and that is totally subjective as well. Got a re-fi done last year and comps were all over the map. Us sweating that one out is an understatement.
@murphstahoe:
glad we can agree on some things. all is not lost.:)
I understand fully that it does take money, often a great deal, to remodel or "fix" your house. It's not cheap here in Sf..but I've seen so many examples of poor construction that has had to be done over and cost the homeowner 2-3x as much.
Not an easy thing to solve. I would just advise people to do it right, spend the right amount of money, and make sure your contractor is well qualified and licensed.
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